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By year-end 2010, we expect segment sales of 4.Links of London Sale units, with average annual growth of around 11% for the five-year forecast period. This will result in a total vehicle market of 17.4mn vehicles in 2010, which would see China retain its position as the world's largest market. However, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers has reported an increase in the country's vehicle inventory, doing little to alleviate concerns of overcapacity in the auto sector. As of the end of September, carmakers in China held 539,200 units in Links of London Charms, up 35,100 units from the previous month. At the same time, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has reported a drop in vehicle prices for the third consecutive month and expects prices to fall further in Q410. While there is concern in China that the auto sector will suffer overcapacity issues in terms of new vehicle production, we see battery producers capitalising on a huge battery replacement market, which becomes more lucrative as the country entrenches itself as the world's largest car market. Replacement purchases account for around 80% of battery demand. However, the risk is that new technology, even in the lead-acid battery market, is prolonging the life cycle of batteries, while lithium-ion battery packs for EVs and hybrids will become more commonplace from Links of London Bunny Pink Charm 2012 onwards.The spike in Shanghai interbank rates may suggest that Chinese banks are growing increasingly fearful of a surge in non-performing loans (NPLs), which could trigger a liquidity crunch in the banking system. We have long argued the case for a rise in banking sector instability in China and believe any turbulence would play into our bearish economic growth outlook. Chinese interbank rates have spiked in recent months, which may signal a growing liquidity crunch caused by fears over rising NPLs in the banking system. We have argued on a number of previous occasions (see our online service, January 20 2010, 'Banking Sector Instability Inevitable') that the surge in lending in 2009 and early 2010 could result in serious financial system instability, and are concerned that the rise in the Shanghai interbank offered rate (SHIBOR) could be a sign of worse to come. The three-month interbank rate has jumped by a third, from 1.96 Links of London Butterfly Charm May 21 to 2.63 at the time of writing in July.